The Battle For Middle Earth

Hey all - well whoever's reading this
Am back after a - well sabbatical size hiatus! Somethings just popped up in my head about the ongoing "global crisis" involving Iran!

This actually hit me because of this book written by Samuel P. Huntington - The Clash Of The Civilizations And The Remaking Of The World Order. A very interesting book and a good read for all politics enthusiasts. He mentions that while most civilzations have a center of power that people. nations of that civilization and religion look upto, Islam never really had one - not after the Persians fell. There was always this tussle between Turkey (descedants of the might Ottoman empire), Iraq (mesopotamian - far too old but it has the oil), Iran (Persian empire), Saudi Arabia (not an empire but its the oil) and Pakistan. Because of this indecisiveness, the upholder of the civilization would inevitably look west to buy power. Iraq, I would say achieved the highest of them all. Pakistan, after going nuclear, would become a likely leader but it being at the periphery of the Muslim world(geographically) the influence is quite reduced. Thus, the one nation, after Iraq's fall in 1990, which can call itself to be a leader and thus, claim stake to being the upholder of the faith is Iran.

Some other geo-politic facts we need to understand is that US was successful in breaking up Russia. Russia was crippled - and more than that, humiliated. A power which sent shivers down evey american was brought to its knees. Sometime soon they had to avenge it and Putin - its just my liking/respect for that guy that I say so - has just that plan. Russia is getting back to business - it features in the top 10 economies and building fast, has some of the largest oil and uranium reserves and a military might that no one can challenge. The recent spate of the West (read US and blah) trying to introduce 'democracy' in the peripheral Soviet states - starting with Yugoslavia in '90, to Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyztan (not much info on this). But these states are too far for the West to have significant control on them and it was pretty much inevitable with time, that Russia would be the country to look up to. So it did happen, Russia agreed to provide security cover to its old allies from the Soviet age.
I wouldn't really care to speak of China here - they are quite a ruthless bunch and the way they are headed, there is absolutely no way they can be kept out of any geo-political equation. Also, Russia China have started talking sweet to each other, we'll probably be seeing more of them together if the future.

Long one that. What's happening with Iran? As I mentioned in my previous post, US cannot afford to attack Iran - it would be way too costly. While Iran wouldn't be able to touch the US directly, it can
- shoot its way into Israel - prompting synch attacks by Hamas, Hezbollah and others
- throw some missiles Europe's way
- hit the soldiers at Western bases in Iraq
- hit oil supplies which are all shipped through strait of Hormuz
This is what Iran could do. In effect, an attack could bring out major turmoil in the middle east which the US is already seen losing it's grip on. Furthermore, these consequences being so evident, none of the Europan states are ready for confrontation because, as mentioned above, it could bring them into the firing line. More importantly, the american economy cannot sustain another war (or battle whatever you may call it). It would straddle the resources too far out and for other reasons which I do not entirely comprehend due to their complexity.
The only option open to them is move for economic sanctions, which will be thwarted to a large extent by Russia and China.

Now, all this may sound very cliched and somewhat like harping over the same thing. But my idea was not to educate you on the Iran issue, but something that Samuel had mentioned in his book. The remaking of the world order is underway, and I feel this confrontation with Iran as the focus is going to be the turning point for the move in power from the West to the East.
Some more signals to this:
-Acknowledgement of Palestine by Russia. They always received aid from the West, but now its Iran and Russia.
-Winning back of Ukraine, Georgia and other peripheral states of strategic(honour) importance from the influences of western Europe.

As always, the Middle East will remain a dependent cranky child - but with a new mother.

disclaimer: I am not a political analyst. It is just my hobby to keep hooked up on global happenings. Most of the information provided above is factual and is not a propaganda against/for anyone!