I don't really know how many of you have been following the Nepal situation in the past few months and the diplomatic splish splosh, the media claims, has been created. Well I just happened to one day suddenly come across a thought. A simple "what if" spiralled into a major conspiracy theory. Now readers beware - this is my space and my opinion. do not claim to be a diplomacy or international politics major. I just like to read and listen to a lot of news.
Anyhow, without much further delay - here is what i think.
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2005/02/01/international0331EST0434.DTL&type=golfThis gives a small brief on the events since king gyanendra ascended to the throne.
I shall also try my best in setting context here.
The Characters:King Gyanendra : The manner in which he ascended has been termed dubious by not just one - especialy since King Birendra (the predecessor) was worshipped as an avatar of Vishnu.
Gyanendra has been unpopular from day one except that he still recieves loyal support from the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) - the single most powerful force in Nepal. You don't need much after that.
Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist (CPN-M): Starting off the insurgency in 1996 with a handful of shotguns , the CPN-M is the second most powerful armed group in Nepal, hosting a cadre of 12000-15000 . Led by Prachanda, who is now equalled as a champion of communism and is put beside Stalin,Marx, Lenin and other heavyweights of the ideology. Bhattarai is the other influential leader wthin the outfit.
The democratic and politcal setup: I don't have much to say about them as they do not really play a major role in my theory.
Indian Govt: Ever the big brother of the small himalayan hindu state, India has been inevitably playing around with politics in Nepal. Time and again criticism for its adventurism does not really abate the activity. Coming from the point of view that India is an Asian superpower - it is simple arithmetic that India must maintain the hegemony.
So starting from the ascesion of King Gyanendra, there has been quite a turmoil in the political circles within Nepal. With the govt. being dismissed twice, a state of general emergency being slapped on the nation and a civil war on with the Maoist - nothing more is needed to create panic.
Within the last 4 months or so, we have seen headlines as below:
India's Nepal policy can be summed up in just one word: confused.
India wakes up: we condemn Maoist violence, they have to lay down armsNepal plays 'Maoist video' to make India see a little redIn Kathmandu, New Delhi has created right royal messNo IB hand in Karat-Bhattarai meeting (can' find the damn link :P)
Now, looking at India's own problem with the Naxals - again followers of communism - Maoist. It started almost 40 years back under the flag of CPI(M). But as many instances in history, they too got out of leash and are an independent body now surviving through illegal trade and political shelter - mind it not ideological. If Nepal were to fall to the maoist, not only would there utter chaos in the nation as communism cannot survive in the capitalist global playground of today's world, but it would also create a nuisance for India with an entire belt stretching from Nepal, Bihar,Jharkhand,Chattisgarh,WB, Orissa,Andhra Pradesh down to Karnataka under Maoist control. (Some might start questinoing India's handling of the situation back home - but I would say it's in pretty good hands.)
India's objectives : Stability to Nepal under Indian eyes! To achieve this, the King must regain his popular position. The "armed" maoist must be removed and the political setup must be made democratic (this democracy of course stinks a bit but works for us anyhow)
The King had uttered big words at the start of the emergency. But of course, intellect matters more in diplomacy than royal pomp. Pakistan and China were to help Nepal in this time of crisis with arms when India had cut the supplies.
Pakistan is not in a state to help out Nepal.And, India cannot afford another Tibet.
India tells Gyanendra to be patient - that's how things work!
The ministers on trial in Nepal are let go and allowed to talk a bit - the political set u p is happy for now.
CPN-M witnesses a face-off between the heavyweights - Pachanda and Bhattarai.
We need to understand something here - Prachanda is the true maoist or violent-Marxist believing in the revolution being the sole avenue.Bhattarai is a moderate and willing to walk the political course.
Bhattarai is expelled from the group, but he has a major support within the group fostering his ideology. This is India's man.
CPI(M) head Karat has an underground meeting (which leaks out) with Bhattarai.
While the RNA continues to be trained by the Indian Army and supplies are re-established, the "left" flank comes in. The CPN-M must be broken into two outfits, one with arms and the other with a political agenda. A split will bring down the soaring popularity it enjoys right now. To the same end,projecting the outfit as going desperate works quite well - the past few weeks have seen attacks on civilians.
Once a formal split occurs, the political side is given "royal" treatment and hailed for their participation in the democratic stream of life. Denouement - morale takes a beating for those weilding weapons.
Well, Maoists are down as of now - not out but down.
With recession in the maoist activities, th political parties can be brought up and the emergency be eased.
What did the King do? - well, it was his resolve that drove the maoist juggernaut aground - something the 'incompetent' ministers were unable to. He even got the political setup back.(well, the last bit isn't so short and sweet :D .. but I was more focused on the Maoist as I had mentioned earlier)
Well .. well. This looks like a pretty happy story. Everything going well. But I must say, it's just a thought and not well elaborated because I haven't had the time to research more news snippets on this.
Bottomline: I love politics.I love conspiracy theories.
