Global 'Iran'y

I guess everyone would be aware of the situation brewing up in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear research or weapon proliferation as the West may seek to call it. Where does this lead to and can Iran be stopped?

I am not a political analyst but I still like to have my theories. So here is the scene:
US, UK, France and Germany – let’s just call them the West – want Iran to stop its attempts at acquiring nuclear capacity, which it started somewhere around 1992.
No one else is saying a word, either because they are not concerned, or they have no say.

Yet it is very difficult to impose sanctions on Iran. Quite a quandary, ain’t it?

Well, our UNSC comprises US, UK, France, Russia and China as the only members with veto power.
While the 3 western nations try to push forward their deal of sanctions, there is simply no way that Russia and China can let this through.

Why? Because China was first in talks with Iraq for approximately a $50+ bn deal for oil supply but the invasion screwed up everything and China entered into a deal with Iran - $70 bn. Couple of more deals for gas supply are in the pipeline. There is no way China can let anyone screw around with Iran while its economy depends on it and Iran being the 4th largest oil and gas producer cannot be easily replaced in the world oil/gas order.

How does Russia figure? Well the stalwart of Russian economy is the defense industry which has more than $10bn worth of deals with Iran.

This is probably a more insignificant reason as compared to the global order and US presence in Asia. The US already has presence in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Turkey. With the pressure building on Syria and age old mistrust among Middle East nations, there is negligible resistance to US presence in the region. The significance of Iran, for Russia and China, goes up here.

There is another important fact which many may not be aware of. The muslim population is divided into two main factions – Sunnis and Shias – and the only two countries comprising 90%+ of the Shia population are Iran and Iraq. While Shias make up for 60% of Iraq’s population, they total to 95% in Iran – which also host their spiritual leaders; a source of spiritual and religious inspiration for Shias. The only reason the US is present in Iraq is the fact that the Shias are not revolting. This can be attributed to Iran to quite an extent – even though there exists an ingrained dislike for US, within Iranians. Who wouldn’t want to gain control of oil in today’s world? Any misadventure in Iran can, thus, cause the situation in Iraq to only worsen and spiral out with a collective resistance against the Americans.

Frankly speaking as much as I would like Iran to achieve nuclear capability for the simple reason of it being the right of any sovereign nation, I would vote against it every time it came up until India was absolutely independent of Iran. While we have shared good diplomatic relations with them over the years, it will work against India, considerably undermining the negotiating capacity of the Indian side for the simple reason that India was “probably” not the country that helped Iran build her nuclear facilities.